Records: 27,564 scored posts · Truth Social → SPY + Mag7
TL;DR — the finding in one sentence
Direction was never predictable. Only magnitude was — and even that faded in 2025.
We matched 27,564 Trump posts (2022–2026) with Mag7/SPY reactions. In none of the five years did score correlate with next-day direction. The only surviving trace was 2025 tariff posts: they predicted the size of the next move, never its direction — and even that faded in the second half of the year. So no trading bot came out of this data; what came out is a passive monitoring service that says 'widen your stops when tariff rhetoric spikes'.
Same week, same topic (tariffs), opposite directions
2025-04-03%-6.69
2025-04-08%+14.76
2025-04-09%-5.06
All three posts were about tariffs; the next-day SPY reaction went both ways. What was readable is the size of the move, never its direction.
Next-day returns after heavy tariff-post days
35 posting days with 3+ tariff posts collapse to 12 unique next-trading-day outcomes (weekend/holiday clustering onto the same next session): 6 up, 6 down. Average absolute move 1.63% vs 1.32% overall — magnitude, yes; direction, no.
The effect didn't last: coefficient by period
Only H1 2025 is significant (t=3.53); H2 2025 and 2026 are noise (t<2, faded bars). The market learned to price repeated tariff threats — the relationship is currently dormant.
RT @TeamTrumpSen. Tim Scott: "This invasion is insane. We need four more years of Donald Trump to secure our border. He's done it once. He will do it again."
💡 The post contains a political message regarding immigration policy and does not carry information that would directly affect financial markets or Mag 7 companies. Although the concept of 'Trump Beta' is among the relevant lessons, the market impact is neutral as this post does not offer new information regarding election probabilities.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-01 05:34
+0 market impact score
RT @TeamTrumpEast Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway says the best time for Biden to visit would be February 2025 when he’s on his book tour.
💡 The post contains a political joke about Biden's book tour; there is no direct connection to financial market lessons. Therefore, its impact on Mag 7 stocks is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-01 05:35
+0 market impact score
RT @DanScavino1/31/2024 — @realDonaldTrump in DC to meet with Teamsters Leadership…
💡 The post is a retweet announcing Trump's meeting with Teamsters leaders, and does not contain a policy or company news that would directly affect equities. There is no content in the relevant lessons that could be linked to market movement.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-01 05:41
-1 market impact score
RT @elisestefanikThis is a LIE. Joe Biden took 94 executive actions in his first 100 days to create the #BidenBorderCrisis.He has done NOTHING to stop this crisis.
💡 The post contains a political accusation criticizing the Biden administration's immigration policy; while such political tensions can create uncertainty, it does not propose a specific policy change that would directly affect equities or Mag 7 companies. The lesson 'Implementation Drift' reminds us that how policies are implemented can change market impacts, but there is no clear policy signal here.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-01 05:44
+0 market impact score
RT @marklevinshowNikki Haley is bought and paid for by our political enemies. Subscribe to the Mark Levin Show podcast for free now.https://megaphone.link/WWO1733974621
💡 The post is a personal critique of Nikki Haley's political donations and is not directly related to financial markets or companies. Although the impact of political donations is mentioned among the relevant lessons, this does not create a direct impact on equities.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-01 05:45
-1 market impact score
RT @marklevinshowNikki Haley deeply disliked by growing number of Americanshttps://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/01/30/poll-60-view-nikki-haley-unfavorably-up-9-points/
💡 The post contains a poll result sharing an increase in Nikki Haley's unfavorable perception rate; this could increase election uncertainty but does not carry a policy signal that would directly affect Mag 7 stocks. Although the lesson 'Favorability trends beat head-to-head polls' suggests that a decline in a candidate's popularity could affect sector sensitivities, the impact remains limited as this post does not target a specific sector or company.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-01 05:47
-1 market impact score
RT @KristiNoemWhen @realDonaldTrump was in the White House, he secured our border. But now, Joe Biden is refusing to use his authority to take action and keep America secure.
💡 The post criticizes the Biden administration's immigration policy and highlights 'border security.' While this may not create a direct impact for the market, it could create uncertainty for sectors dependent on immigrant labor (construction, agriculture, food processing). The theme of 'internal pressure' in Lesson 1 reminds us that such rhetoric can lead to policy changes, which in turn could have a slightly negative impact on the market.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-01 05:55
+0 market impact score
RT @JonVoightBelieve
💡 The post is only a retweet and provides no content, thus its market impact is neutral. There is no signal directly linked to this post in the relevant lessons.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-02 15:40
+1 market impact score
Thank you Viktor, we will not let the World down - THERE WILL BE PEACE ON EARTH, JUST LIKE THERE WAS FOUR YEARS AGO! https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/02/02/peace-has-a-name-donald-trump-hungarys-orban-says-donald-trump-only-leader-strong-enough-to-end-war-in-ukraine/
💡 The post contains a general expression of optimism about ending the war in Ukraine; this could have a slightly positive impact on stocks due to expectations of reduced geopolitical risks. However, the impact is limited as it does not contain specific policy or agreement details.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2024-02-02 18:36
+0 market impact score
Fani Willis, the D.A. of Fulton County, just admitted to having a sexual relationship with the Prosecutor she, in consultation with the White House and DOJ, appointed to “GET PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.” By going after the most high level person, and the Republican Nominee, she was able to get her “lover” much more money, almost a Million Dollars, than she would be able to get for the prosecution of any other person o…
💡 The post contains a political accusation regarding Fani Willis's personal life and does not carry information directly related to financial markets or companies. As no relevant lesson is found and the content is personal/political, the market impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2022-10-26 04:01
+0 market impact score
RT @OksanaTrump
💡 The post is merely a retweet of the '@OksanaTrump' account and contains no commentary or meaningful content. Although among relevant lessons there are those directly linked to the market (e.g., 'Ham petrol stoku artarken ürün stoku düşüşü fiyatı destekler'), since the post itself carries no financial signal, the impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2022-10-26 04:20
+0 market impact score
RT @OksanaTrump
💡 The post contains only an RT (quote) and carries no financial or political content; therefore the market impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2022-10-26 04:20
+0 market impact score
RT @OksanaTrump
💡 The post contains only an RT (quote), with no commentary or concrete market-related message. Among relevant lessons there is no connection that would directly affect stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2022-10-26 20:21
+0 market impact score
See you on Saturday, November 5th—PENNSYLVANIA!
💡 The post is a personal rally announcement and is not directly related to financial markets. Warnings among lessons such as 'Last Day Trading Caution' do not create a meaningful impact in this context.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2022-10-26 21:39
+0 market impact score
See you on Thursday, November 3rd—IOWA!
💡 The post is an announcement of a Trump event in Iowa on 3 Kasım'da; it contains no policy, threat or commitment related to financial markets. Therefore no direct impact is expected on Mag 7 stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
💡 The post contains personal political support regarding the Alaska Senate race; it carries no policy or market message that would directly affect Mag 7 stocks. Although the lesson 'Emotional Reaction to Unfavorable Political Outcomes' emphasizes the emotional impact of political events, this post is neutral for the market.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
💡 The post is a political content regarding Trump's support for Republican candidates in the states; it does not contain an economic or market-focused message that will directly affect Mag 7 stocks. Although the impact of political donations and populist reactions are mentioned among the lessons, this general macro context does not create a specific directional impact on stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2022-10-26 23:19
+0 market impact score
Senator Ted Cruz had the courage and wisdom to write a new and very telling book, “Justice Corrupted, How the Left Weaponized Our Legal System.” It is great, as it spells out in detail things that others, including Republicans, are afraid to discuss - but shouldn’t be. It is a must read for those interested in the new hot subject of Election Fraud, of which our Country has PLENTY. Congratulations Ted! The book is ava…
💡 The post is a political content promoting Ted Cruz's book and does not contain any information, policy change, or economic impact directly related to financial markets or Mag 7 companies.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
💡 The post conveys an internal political development regarding McConnell's condemnation by the Alaska Republican Party; this situation does not create a direct market impact for US stocks or Mag 7 companies. Although 'Political Events as Volatility Catalysts' from the relevant lessons is a general warning, this event is not a clear source of volatility or directional impact.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2022-10-27 02:38
+0 market impact score
Connie Scott will deliver incredible results as Nueces County Judge.The owner of a great business and the County’s chief budget officer, Connie knows what it takes to secure the American Dream. She will fight hard to Stop Crime, Protect the Rights of Law-Abiding Citizens, and Ensure Justice for All.Connie Scott has my Complete and Total Endorsement!
💡 The post is a message of support for a local candidate and does not contain any information related to stocks or macroeconomic policies.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 11:04
+0 market impact score
Look, Rob DeSanctimonious came to me asking for help. He was losing badly, by 31 points, to popular Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. He was getting ready to drop out of the race - Ran a terrible campaign! Ron told me he had one last chance, my Support & Endorsement, which Putnam, and everyone else, wanted also. I gave it to Ron, and the race was over. In one day, he went from losing badly, to winning by a lo…
💡 The post is about a personal political disagreement and contains no information related to financial markets or companies. Therefore, no direct impact on US stocks is expected.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 11:28
-1 market impact score
Ron DeSanctus can’t win the General Election (or get the Nomination) because he VOTED TO OBLITERATE SOCIAL SECURITY, EVEN WANTING TO RAISE THE MINIMUM AGE TO 70 (or more!), VOTED TO BADLY WOUND MEDICARE, AND FOUGHT HARD AND VOTED FOR A 23% “TAX ON EVERYTHING” SALES TAX. He was, and is, a disciple of horrible RINO Paul Ryan, and others too many to mention. Also, he desperately needs a personality transplant and, to th…
💡 The post is a personal and political attack on rival candidate Ron DeSantis; it does not directly impact stocks or market policies. However, it may create political uncertainty, hence a slightly negative impact is scored.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 11:39
+0 market impact score
I BUILT THE GREATEST ECONOMY IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD, NO INFLATION, ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, AND SOON DOMINANCE, THE STRONGEST BORDER EVER, RECORD BEST EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS, BIGGEST TAX & REGULATION CUTS, REBUILT OUR MILITARY, NO WARS WITH RUSSIA/UKRAINE OR CHINA/TAIWAN (OR ANYWHERE!), AND THE USA WAS RESPECTED ALL OVER THE WORLD! WHAT ELSE CAN I SAY?
💡 The post is a past-oriented laudatory statement and does not contain any specific policy or market impact. It has been assessed as neutral as no relevant lesson was found.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 11:51
-1 market impact score
ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!
💡 The post creates political uncertainty with accusations of election interference; this could lead to short-term volatility in line with the lesson 'Anti-establishment poll surge signals policy instability', but the impact is limited as it does not directly target stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 21:20
+0 market impact score
I’d like to personally congratulate “Rob” DeSanctimonious on finally announcing that he will be entering the race for President of the United States. Hopefully he will get the full experience of being attacked by the Marxists, Communists, and Radical Left Lunatics of our Country, without which he will never know the kind of job he is doing. These Lowlifes & Misfits are far worse than the leaders of hostile foreig…
💡 The post is personal and political content criticizing the presidential entry of political rival Ron DeSantis; it contains no information directly related to financial markets or companies.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 22:11
+0 market impact score
His collar is too big!
💡 The post is a personal commentary and not directly related to financial markets. While the phrase 'His collar is too big!' may be linked to collar strategies in risk management lessons, the content does not carry information that would create a significant market impact.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 22:18
+0 market impact score
DeSanctimonious raised much of his money during his run for Governor, which in theory cannot be used for his current “escapade,” and before his poll numbers tanked - and wow(!) did they tank!
💡 The post is a personal political critique of Ron DeSantis's gubernatorial campaign financing and poll decline; it is not directly related to stocks or market policies. Therefore, the market impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 22:54
+0 market impact score
“Rob,” My Red Button is bigger, better, stronger, and is working (TRUTH!), yours does not! (per my conversation with Kim Jung Un, of North Korea, soon to become my friend!).
💡 The post contains a personal claim of superiority and an emphasis on friendship with the North Korean leader; it has no direct market impact. While the lesson 'Kiss the Hand You Cannot Bite' implies strategic alignment could be market-friendly, this content does not create uncertainty.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 23:41
+0 market impact score
Wow! The DeSanctus TWITTER launch is a DISASTER! His whole campaign will be a disaster. WATCH!
💡 The post is a personal political commentary criticizing DeSanctus's Twitter launch; it is not directly related to US stocks or Mag 7 companies. The lesson 'Ignore Extreme Doomsayers' emphasizes that sensational negative predictions should not affect investments.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 23:47
+0 market impact score
Tim Scott’s Presidential launch, even with the broken microphone (don’t pay the contractor, Tim!), was by far the best Presidential launch of the week. Robs was a catastrophe!
💡 The post is a personal commentary on Tim Scott's presidential campaign launch, and the phrase 'Robs was a catastrophe!' is a political critique, not containing a financial impact directly related to US stocks or Mag 7 companies. While the lesson 'Political Events as Volatility Catalysts' states that major political events can create volatility, this post focuses on a single candidate's launch and is not of a nature to create a significant impact on the overall market.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 23:52
+0 market impact score
RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/110426004999556481MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
💡 The post contains a general political message with the slogan 'MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!'; there is no specific policy, sector, or company target. Therefore, no direct impact on Mag 7 stocks is expected.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-24 23:56
+0 market impact score
RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/110425957524397715Thank you PRESIDENT TRUMP!
💡 The post is a retweet thanking Trump and does not contain a direct impact on the financial market. Although it can be evaluated in the context of the relevant lesson 'Controversial supporters carry reputational risk', this content is neutral for stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-25 00:16
-1 market impact score
Is the DeSantis launch FATAL? Yes!
💡 The post contains an aggressive critique of political rival DeSantis's campaign launch; this may create general uncertainty but does not contain a specific policy or sector target that would directly affect stocks. The lesson 'Walk-Off Home Run Mentality' reminds that market participants act with a drive to win, but such political disputes can lead to short-term volatility.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-25 00:18
+0 market impact score
RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/IAPolls2022/statuses/110425733292521453THIS POLL JUST OUT. WOW!
💡 The post is a retweet sharing a poll result and does not contain a concrete policy or event related to the market or companies. While the relevant lesson 'Inadequate Sensitivity to Sample Size' draws attention to poll reliability, this situation does not create a direct impact on stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-25 02:17
+0 market impact score
Alfred E. Neuman!
💡 The post carries personal and nonsensical content with the phrase 'Alfred E. Neuman!'; it contains no information or signal related to financial markets. Therefore, the impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-25 02:50
+0 market impact score
Talking head Marc Thiessen, a former speechwriter for Bush, is costing FoxNews lots of viewers. They are tired of hearing very positive Fake News, especially when it comes to DeSanctus!
💡 The post contains a personal critique of FoxNews viewers and Marc Thiessen; it is not directly related to financial markets. While the lesson 'Mute Financial News to Reduce Influence' suggests reducing media influence, this post does not contain information that would create a significant impact on Mag 7 stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-25 18:26
-1 market impact score
“Rob” DeSanctimonious and his poll numbers are dropping like a rock!
💡 The post is a personal critique of a rival candidate's decline in poll numbers, and does not contain content that would create a direct impact related to US stocks or Mag 7 companies; therefore, the impact is limited and slightly negative. The lesson 'Paid media won't fix weak numbers' can create uncertainty by emphasizing that political weakness cannot be fixed by media spending, but it does not change market fundamentals.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-25 18:29
+0 market impact score
When the Ron DeSanctimonious facts come out, you will see that he is better than most Democrat governors, but very average, at best, compared to Republican governors!
💡 The post is a personal political commentary comparing Ron DeSantis to other governors; it does not contain a direct link to financial markets or Mag 7 companies. The lesson 'Contrast Misreaction' supports that such comparisons can be misleading but do not create market impact.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2023-05-25 18:31
+0 market impact score
Ron DeSanctimonious had ZERO CHANCE of winning the Republican primary for governor of Florida before a man named President Donald J. Trump endorsed him!
💡 The post is a personal political critique of Ron DeSantis's failure in his gubernatorial race and does not contain financial information directly related to US stocks or Mag 7 companies. Therefore, the market impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-29 08:05
-3 market impact score
Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nonnuclear deal. They better get smart soon! President DJT
💡 The threatening rhetoric towards Iran may increase the risk of a long-term conflict, raising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty; this creates negative pressure on Mag 7 stocks. The finding in Lesson 8, 'Iran-US tension may turn into a long-term conflict rather than a short-term operation,' supports the possibility of a lasting negative impact on the market.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-29 21:18
+0 market impact score
Today's 6-3 Supreme Court decision in the Callais case is a BIG WIN for Equal Protection under the Law, as it returns the Voting Rights Act to its Original Intent, which was to protect against intentional Racial Discrimination. Thank you to brilliant Justice Samuel Alito for authoring this important and appropriate Opinion. Congratulations! President DONALD J. TRUMP
💡 The post praises a Supreme Court decision on voting rights; it is not directly related to stocks or market conditions. The impact is neutral as no relevant financial lesson was found.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-29 21:48
+0 market impact score
The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
💡 The post does not contain a specific policy change that would have a direct impact on US stocks or Mag 7 companies; an announcement of a review to reduce troop numbers in Germany is a neutral development for the market.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-29 21:55
-3 market impact score
Jerome "Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't get a job anywhere else — Nobody wants him. President DONALD J. TRUMP
💡 The harsh personal attack on the Fed Chair increases market uncertainty due to the perceived threat to central bank independence and may create negative pressure, especially on Mag 7 stocks which are highly sensitive to interest rates. In the context of the capacity constraint in official capacity in Lesson 1 and the long-term support of Fed signals in Lesson 5, such political interference shakes confidence.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-29 22:20
+1 market impact score
Intel Stock continues to rise. I'm very proud of that Company in that I am responsible for making the United States of America over 30 Billion Dollars in the last 90 days on that stock alone. There are others that, likewise, I have been very successful with by taking pieces of the Equity for support. Congratulations to Intel on doing such a great job and, more importantly, congratulations to the People of the United …
💡 The post praises the rise in Intel stock and US gains from this investment; this may create general optimism that could increase investor confidence. However, it does not contain a specific policy or lesson that would directly affect Mag 7 stocks.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-29 23:04
+0 market impact score
Robert Hardman has written an amazing book about the incredible life of the beloved and deeply respected Queen Elizabeth II. In his research, Robert discovers many interesting things about the Queen, King Charles, and other members of the Royal Family. Robert's book, "Elizabeth II: In Private. In Public. Her Story," promises to be a MUST READ, and can be purchased on Amazon, and at every major bookstore. Co…
💡 The post promotes a book about Queen Elizabeth II and contains no information or lessons related to financial markets.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
💡 The post content could not be accessed, so direct market impact cannot be assessed; relevant lessons contain general warnings but no specific impact signal.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 03:12
+1 market impact score
Harvard Harris Poll: Strong Majority back President Trump on Iran Nuclear stoppage.
💡 The post creates a market-friendly perception by reducing geopolitical uncertainty, highlighting strong public support for the Iran nuclear deal; however, it does not contain specific policies that would directly affect stocks or Mag 7 companies. Therefore, a slightly positive impact is anticipated.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 03:35
-1 market impact score
"86" is a mob term for "kill him." They say 86 him! 86 47 means "kill President Trump."James Comey, who is a Dirty Cop, one of the worst, knows this full well! EIGHT MILES OUT, SIX FEET DOWN! Didn't he also lie to the FBI about this??? I think so! President DJT
💡 The post could increase political uncertainty by creating a threat perception towards Trump; however, a slightly negative impact is expected as it does not contain policies that directly affect company fundamentals.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 13:40
+0 market impact score
The Chancellor of Germany should spend more time on ending the war with Russia/Ukraine (Where he has been totally ineffective!), and fixing his broken Country, especially Immigration and Energy, and less time on interfering with those that are getting rid of the Iran Nuclear threat, thereby making the World, including Germany, a safer place! President DJT
💡 The post contains a personal critique of the German Chancellor and does not propose a policy change that would directly affect US stocks or Mag 7 companies. Therefore, the market impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 13:51
-1 market impact score
How much abuse can the Republican Senate take from the Radical Left Lunatics in the form of Democrat Senators, before they BLOW UP (TERMINATE!) THE FILIBUSTER, and approve things at a record clip, including The Save America Act, that would be unthinkable without the Filibuster Termination??? The Dems will do it on the first hour of their first day. DO NOT BE STUPID!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
💡 The post contains a political discussion regarding the removal of filibuster rules; this could create uncertainty in the legislative process and have a slightly negative impact on the market.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 16:22
+0 market impact score
For months, Senator Bill Cassidy (of the GREAT State of Louisiana!), a very disloyal person whose "TRUMP" Endorsement got him elected, but later voted to impeach "President Trump" on what has now proven to be a total Hoax and Scam, has stood in the way of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Nominee, Casey Means, for the important position of U.S. Surgeon General. I nominated Casey, a strong MAHA Warrior, at t…
💡 The post is a personal statement about health policies and candidate support, and does not contain information that would directly affect stocks or market conditions. Therefore, the market impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 16:29
+0 market impact score
Hopefully all of the Great Republican People of Louisiana, which I won, BIG, three times, will be voting Bill Cassidy OUT OF OFFICE in the upcoming Republican Primary! President DONALD J. TRUMP
💡 The post is a personal message of political support for the Louisiana Republican primary; it does not contain policies that would directly affect Mag 7 stocks or the general market. Although the relevant lessons indicate that political events can create volatility, no significant impact on the market is expected from this post as it pertains to a specific electoral district and does not promise a national policy change.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 16:43
+0 market impact score
I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Dr. Nicole B. Saphier to be the next SURGEON GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Nicole is a STAR physician who has spent her career guiding women facing breast cancer through their diagnosis and treatment while tirelessly advocating to increase early cancer detection and prevention, while at the same time working with men and women on all other forms of cancer diagn…
💡 The post is an announcement of a nominee for Minister of Health and has no direct relevance to the market. Therefore, no significant impact on stocks is expected.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 16:55
+0 market impact score
I had a very good conversation with Governor Bill Lee, of Tennessee, this morning, wherein he stated that he would work hard to correct the unconstitutional flaw in the Congressional Maps of the Great State of Tennessee. Likewise, all of the other Political Representatives of Tennessee have promised to do so. This should give us one extra seat, and help Save our Country from the Radical Left Democrats, and their Coun…
💡 The post relates to Tennessee state maps and general political discourse and has no direct connection to financial markets. As no relevant lesson was found and the content does not carry an economic factor that would affect Mag 7 stocks, a neutral impact was assessed.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 17:43
+0 market impact score
Thank you to the Great Governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, for his leadership on the very important Callais case, and for moving so quickly to fix the Unconstitutionality of Louisiana's Congressional Maps. He has shown tremendous Vision, Strength, and Leadership. Thank you Jeff, keep up the GREAT work! President DONALD J. TRUMP
💡 The post contains thanks and praise for the leadership of the Governor of Louisiana regarding a court decision; there is no direct connection to stocks or market conditions.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 17:44
-1 market impact score
Hakeem Jeffries just called the Supreme Court of the United States an illegitimate Court! This is a Low IQ individual, who should not be allowed to talk that way about one of the Greatest Institutions anywhere in the World. He should withdraw the statement, IMMEDIATELY! President DONALD J. TRUMP
💡 The post contains a political critique of the Supreme Court and cannot be directly linked to financial market lessons; however, a slightly negative impact was assessed due to potential uncertainty regarding institutional stability.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 17:50
+0 market impact score
Anybody running for President or Vice President should be forced to take a Cognitive Examination prior to entering the Race! By doing so, we wouldn't be surprised at people like Barack "Hussein" Obama, or Sleepy Joe Biden, getting "ELECTED." Our Country would be a much better place! I took the Exam three times during my ("THREE!") Terms as President, and ACED IT ALL THREE TIMES — An Achi…
💡 The post contains personal criticism of political rivals; it does not carry a concrete policy or company impact related to financial market lessons.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 18:08
+0 market impact score
Congratulations to Ali al-Zaidi on his Nomination to be the next Prime Minister of Iraq! We wish him success as he works to form a new Government free from terrorism that could deliver a brighter future for Iraq. We look forward to a strong, vibrant, and highly productive new relationship between Iraq and the United States. This is the beginning of a tremendous new chapter between our Nations — Prosperity, Stability,…
💡 The post is a personal/diplomatic message congratulating the Iraqi Prime Minister candidate and wishing good relations between the two countries. It has no direct impact on US stocks or Mag 7 companies.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
DT
Donald J. Trump ✓
@realDonaldTrump
2026-04-30 18:30
+0 market impact score
In Honor of the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, who have just left the White House, soon headed back to their wonderful Country, I will be removing the Tariffs and Restrictions on Whiskey having to do with Scotland's ability to work with the Commonwealth of Kentucky on Whiskey and Bourbon, two very important Industries within Scotland and Kentucky. People have wanted to do this for a long time, in that there ha…
💡 Although the post contains a commercial gesture towards removing whiskey and bourbon tariffs, it has no direct impact on US stocks and Mag 7 companies. Therefore, the market impact is neutral.
Company-level 1-day abnormal return (AR) — the broad market (QQQ) has been subtracted. This decomposition is meaningful only when the post is about a specific company; for macro topics such as tariffs, refer to the market reaction above.
⚠ This site is a historical post–market reaction statistic. The headline measure is the raw return of SPY (broad market); the company-level detail uses abnormal return (QQQ subtracted). No directional prediction was found in this data — the correlation between score and next-day return is near zero across all five years. This is NOT investment advice or a forecast. What we found, how we measured →